Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
CM-CIC Capital Prive vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 22.2% (2 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 6.3%–54.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-20.3 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
-29.5 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 51.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-45.1 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 67.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-40.3 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 62.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.0 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exaprotectexaprotect.com | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Spartoospartoo.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| AwoXawox.com | 2008 | No | 65 | — |
| Captain Traincaptaintrain.com | 2012 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Biophytisbiophytis.com | 2012 | No | 55 | — |
| Global Imaging Onlineglobal-imaging.net | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| METRIXWAREmetrixware.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| kalideabilletterie.kalidea.com | 2007 | No | 38 | — |
| Le Floch Depollutionleflochdepollution.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |