Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
CMEA Capital vs Kairos
68th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 68.2% (15 of 22 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 47.3%–83.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 74th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.2 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+15.7 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.6 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 67.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+6.9 pp
68.2% on 22 deals vs 61.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 38.1% (8 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 20.8%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.8 pp
38.1% on 21 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
22 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luminateluminatemed.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Jobvitejobvite.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Netbooksnetbooks.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Schooner Information Technologyschoonerinfotech.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Solariasolaria.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Agility Design Solutions | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| Relypsarelypsa.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Amitiveamitive.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Intermolecularintermolecular.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Codexiscodexis.com | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Triporatitriporati.com | 2008 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Multigigmultigig.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Cnano Technologycnanotechnology.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Pyxis Technologypyxistech.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| WorkingPointworkingpoint.com | 2012 | No | 53 | — |
| Evolution Roboticsevolution.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |
| Teros | 2005 | No | 41 | — |
| Danotek Motion Technologiesdanotekmotion.com | 2008 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Telsimatelsima.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| NuScale Powernuscalepower.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Ambrxambrx.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| InSound Medicalinsoundmedical.com | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |