Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Collaborative Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (7 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.9%–97.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+39.0 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 48.5%
Vs median VC book
+23.8 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 63.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+6.9 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 80.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+12.6 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 74.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
87
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skillshareskillshare.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| MindSnacksmindsnacks.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Sherpaasherpaa.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Getablegetable.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Good Eggsgoodeggs.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Massive Healthmassivehealth.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| MakeSpacemakespace.com | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Grand St.grandst.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Somadrinksoma.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |