Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Columbia Capital vs Kairos
69th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.5% (20 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–77.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 69th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.9 pp
62.5% on 32 deals vs 40.6%
Vs median VC book
+11.6 pp
62.1% on 29 deals vs 50.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.8 pp
62.1% on 29 deals vs 64.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.4 pp
66.7% on 24 deals vs 68.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 29 of 32 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
29
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 17.2% (5 of 29). 95% Wilson interval 7.6%–34.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.7 pp
17.2% on 29 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intelliworksintelliworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Mobile Possemobileposse.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| Brickstreambrickstream.com | 2003 | No | 88 | — |
| Millennial Mediamillennialmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| CCTV Wireless | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| Vubiquityvubiquity.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Envysionenvysion.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Netuitivenetuitive.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Gizmozgizmoz.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Kirusakirusa.com | 2006 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Hatteras Networkshatterasnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 66 | — |
| mindSHIFT Technologiesmindshift.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| NetDevicestvizl.blogspot.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| Endgameendgame.com | 2010 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Teliristeliris.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| WiNetworkswinetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Mangrove Systemsmangrovesystems.com | 2003 | No | 50 | — |
| Rivermine Softwarerivermine.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| IntelliBattintellibatt.com | 2012 | No | 44 | — |
| PanGo Networkspangonetworks.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| ExteNet Systemsextenetsystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Amp'd Mobileampd.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| GlobalOne Groupglobalone.com | 2011 | No | 28 | — |
| Taquataqua.com | 2003 | No | 28 | — |
| Enpirionenpirion.com | 2004 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Altamiraaltamiracorp.com | 2012 | No | 24 | — |
| Avolentavolent.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Teraneticsteranetics.com | 2006 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Zayozayo.com | 2007 | Yes | 10 | — |
| ReefEdgereefedge.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Mandalay Sports Media (MSM)mandalaysportsmedia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Approvaapprova.net | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| BroadSoftbroadsoft.com | 2002 | No | — | — |