Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Comcast Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 58.3% (7 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.0%–80.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.6 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 45.7%
Vs median VC book
-1.3 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 59.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.0 pp
58.3% on 12 deals vs 75.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.5 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 71.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+36.5 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giant Realmgiantrealm.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Iddictioniddiction.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Intellon Corporationintellon.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Tely Labstely.com | 2012 | No | 67 | — |
| RGB Networksrgbnetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Maker's Rowmakersrow.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| SnagFilmssnagfilms.com | 2011 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Movaz Networks | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Viridis Learningviridislearning.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| BNI Videobnivideo.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| Visible Worldvisibleworld.com | 2003 | No | 35 | — |
| Reactor Inc.reactorlabs.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| ElectNextelectnext.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |