Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Commonwealth Capital Ventures vs Kairos
53rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (12 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.7%–78.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 63rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.7 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 41.3%
Vs median VC book
+8.6 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.0 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 67.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.4 pp
56.3% on 16 deals vs 61.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
49
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (2 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 3.5%–36.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.6 pp
12.5% on 16 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HubCasthubcast.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| Collaborate.comcollaborate.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Copanioncopanion.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| The Echo Nestthe.echonest.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| BitSight Technologiesbitsighttech.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| AccuRevaccurev.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| Seahorse Bioscienceseahorsebio.com | 2009 | Yes | 53 | — |
| JazzD Marketsjazzdphone.com | 2008 | No | 45 | — |
| CRI Technologiescri1.com | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Auction Holdingsauctionzip.com | 2009 | No | 42 | — |
| ZoomInfozoominfo.com | 2004 | No | 40 | — |
| ByAllAccountsbyallaccounts.com | 2008 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Seniorlinkcaregiverhomes.com | 2011 | No | 36 | — |
| Artfactartfact.com | 2009 | No | 35 | — |
| StarGen | 2003 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Ounce Labsouncelabs.com | 2004 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Carbon Design Systemscarbondesignsystems.com | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Crossbeam Systemscrossbeamsystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Reval.comreval.com | 2007 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Extrapriseextraprise.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |