Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Constellation Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-30.6 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 41.7%
Vs median VC book
-39.3 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 50.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-54.7 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 65.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-61.6 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 61.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
48
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 66.7% (6 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–87.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+52.7 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fathom Onlinefathomonline.com | 2004 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Crispy Gamercrispygamer.com | 2008 | No | 81 | — |
| AirSageairsage.com | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| OfferWireofferwire.com | 2009 | No | 43 | — |
| Vivid Logicvividlogic.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| Origin Digitalorigindigital.com | 2007 | No | 39 | — |
| MediaXstreammediaxstream.tv | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| Avolentavolent.com | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Orchestria Corporationorchestria.com | 2004 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Astrum Solarastrumsolar.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |