Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Contour Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 88.9% (8 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.5%–98.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+41.3 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 47.6%
Vs median VC book
+25.6 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 61.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.3 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 79.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+17.3 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 70.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohortkohort.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Movable Inkmovableink.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| OnDeckondeck.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Zipmarkzipmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Scratch Music Groupscratch.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| OwnEnergyownenergy.net | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Yhatyhat.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Edgecase (formerly Compare Metrics)edgecase.io | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| True Officetrueoffice.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| SwapDriveswapdrive.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |