Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Core Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (8 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.6%–78.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.3 pp
57.1% on 14 deals vs 40.8%
Vs median VC book
+4.0 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 49.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.3 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 64.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.0 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 68.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 13 of 14 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.1% (1 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 1.3%–31.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-8.0 pp
7.1% on 14 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roundboxroundbox.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| UpdateLogicupdatelogic.com | 2006 | No | 80 | — |
| Inlet Technologiesinlethd.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Twisted Pair Solutionstwistpair.com | 2006 | No | 73 | — |
| V.i. Laboratoriesvilabs.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| FreedomPayfreedompay.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| COVEGAcovega.com | 2003 | No | 47 | — |
| Triumfanttriumfant.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| sentitO Networks | 2003 | Yes | 43 | — |
| NextPoint Networksnextpoint.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Valen Analyticsvalen.com | 2007 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Infinite Power Solutionsinfinitepowersolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| VPIsystemsvpisystems.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| SwapDriveswapdrive.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| SwiftTestswifttest.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |