Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Covington Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.1 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
-7.5 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 57.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.0 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-30.6 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 80.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.9 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 14.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolverresolvergrc.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| FirstHand Technologiessipquest.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| NetIQnetiq.com | 2005 | No | 73 | — |
| Coreworxcoreworx.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Agile Systemsagile-systems.com | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| Aimetisaimetis.com | 2010 | No | 27 | — |