Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Creathor Venture vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 35.7% (5 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.3%–61.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-8.7 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-19.7 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 55.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-36.1 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 71.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-31.1 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 66.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.3 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| News Republicnews-republic.com | 2009 | No | 92 | — |
| Netbiscuitsnetbiscuits.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| joiz Groupjoiz.com | 2010 | Yes | 70 | — |
| SIRION BIOTECHsirion-biotech.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Cube Biotechcube-biotech.com | 2012 | No | 61 | — |
| cloudControlcloudcontrol.com | 2011 | No | 56 | — |
| stylefruitsstylefruits.de | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| CEVEC Pharmaceuticalscevec.com | 2010 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Sividon Diagnosticssividon.com | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| Doodledoodle.com | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| Telljatellja.de | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| aka-aki networksaka-aki.com | 2009 | No | 33 | — |
| Caprotec Bioanalyticscaprotec.com | 2008 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Zadegozadego.de | 2011 | No | 9 | — |
| Kigokigo.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Iconicfutureiconicfuture.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Roombeatsroombeats.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |