Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Crédit Agricole Private Equity vs Kairos
0th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 6.9% (2 of 29 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 1.9%–22.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 3rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-38.2 pp
6.9% on 29 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
-47.5 pp
6.9% on 29 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-63.1 pp
6.9% on 29 deals vs 70.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-57.9 pp
6.9% on 29 deals vs 64.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
29
Mean model percentile
48
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 13.0% (3 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 4.5%–32.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.2 pp
13.0% on 23 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
29 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poxelpoxel.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| SpineGuardspineguard.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Canevaflorcanevaflor.com | 2009 | No | 82 | — |
| TrustYoutrustyou.com | 2011 | No | 78 | — |
| Exaprotectexaprotect.com | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| L4 Digital (formerly L4 Mobile)l4digital.com | 2006 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Bizangabizanga.com | 2009 | No | 74 | — |
| viavooviavoo.com | 2011 | No | 65 | — |
| Weole Energyweole-energy.com | 2008 | No | 64 | — |
| Keldelicekeldelice.com | 2009 | No | 61 | — |
| DxO Labsdxo.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Dealstreetdealstreet.com | 2009 | No | 55 | — |
| Cytheriscytheris.com | 2006 | No | 51 | — |
| Splendiasplendia.com | 2008 | No | 48 | — |
| Amakemamakem.com | 2011 | No | 48 | — |
| OpenTrustopentrust.com | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| Aquafadasaquafadas.com | 2009 | No | 42 | — |
| NEMOPTICnemoptic.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| CellNovocellnovo.com | 2011 | No | 35 | — |
| Epticaeptica.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| FlexGenflexgen.nl | 2009 | No | 28 | — |
| H2i Technologiesh2i-technologies.eu | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| ConfortVisuelconfortvisuel.com | 2010 | No | 26 | — |
| Urbasolarurbasolar.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Scan & Targetscanandtarget.com | 2009 | No | 23 | — |
| VALOREMvalorem-energie.com | 2007 | No | 16 | — |
| Novalednovaled.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| TRONICS GROUPtronicsgroup.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Ingenicohealthcare-eid.ingenico.com | 2006 | No | 7 | — |