Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Crescendo Ventures vs Kairos
24th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.7% (7 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 24.8%–69.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 36th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+4.7 pp
46.7% on 15 deals vs 42.0%
Vs median VC book
-2.4 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.3 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 65.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.8 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 71.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 15 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (3 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 7.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.9 pp
20.0% on 15 deals vs 15.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NextIOnextio.com | 2005 | No | 97 | — |
| Arterisarteris.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| brylleshozu.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| BDNAbdna.com | 2005 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Novaluxnovalux.it | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Airband Communications Holdingsairband.com | 2007 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Paxera | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| WhereNetwherenet.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| QuikCyclequikcycle.com | 2007 | No | 44 | — |
| Tropic Networks | 2003 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Fultec Semiconductor | 2006 | No | 20 | — |
| Zolo Technologieszolotech.com | 2005 | Yes | 11 | — |
| SealedMedia | 2001 | No | — | — |
| BroadSoftbroadsoft.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| CoreOpticscoreoptics.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |