Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Cross Atlantic Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.3 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 42.2%
Vs median VC book
-6.2 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 50.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.0 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 66.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.1 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 65.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
44
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.1 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palyon Medicalpalyonmedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| GQ Life Sciencesgqlifesciences.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Sagencesagenceconsulting.com | 2011 | No | 61 | — |
| Voxwarevoxware.com | 2003 | No | 44 | — |
| MetaPackmetapack.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| Lightning Gaminglightningpoker.net | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| Profectus Biosciencesprofectusbiosciences.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| MobileAwaremobileaware.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Mobile Cohesion | 2006 | No | 13 | — |