Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Crosscut Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (7 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–84.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.4 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 46.2%
Vs median VC book
+6.7 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 56.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.9 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.5 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 70.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+38.8 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 11.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Docstocdocstoc.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| ShoeDazzleshoedazzle.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Ze Frank Gameszefrank.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| StyleSaintstylesaint.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SHIFTshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| HaulerDealshaulerdeals.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| EVENTupeventup.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Pulpo Mediapulpomedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Lettucelettuceapps.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Affordit.comaffordit.com | 2009 | No | 64 | — |
| Circle Streetcirclestreet.com | 2010 | No | 43 | — |
| On The Run Techontheruntech.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |