Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Crosslink Capital vs Kairos
46th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.7% (17 of 30 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.2%–72.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 50th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.6 pp
56.7% on 30 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+2.3 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 54.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.8 pp
57.1% on 28 deals vs 69.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.1 pp
55.6% on 27 deals vs 70.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 28 of 30 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
28
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.6% (6 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 15.4%–54.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.9 pp
31.6% on 19 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
30 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chartiochartio.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| CrowdMobcrowdmob.com | 2011 | No | 94 | — |
| TopFloortopfloor.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Graphdivegraphdive.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Visual.lyvisual.ly | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Wittlebeewittlebee.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| DevonWaydevonway.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| iCurrenticurrent.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| InboundWriterinboundwriter.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| Scripted.comscripted.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| OptTowncorp.opttown.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| HomeLighthomelight.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Zebit, Inc.zebit.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Plato Networksplatonetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| SoloPowersolopower.com | 2007 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Alta Devicesaltadevices.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Strix Systemsstrixsystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| SetMediaset.tv | 2011 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Hotel Booking Solutions Incorporatedhotelbookingsolutions.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| JellyCloudventurebeat.com | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| Hiredhired.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| SiliconBlue Technologiessiliconbluetech.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| ReVerarevera.com | 2005 | No | 30 | — |
| Surgientsurgient.com | 2006 | No | 25 | — |
| sliceXslicex.com | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| Reliance Globalcomrelianceglobalcom.com | 2005 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Validity Sensorsvalidityinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Intematixintematix.com | 2006 | Yes | 11 | — |
| Flitflit.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| newScalenewscale.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| AmberPointamberpoint.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| On The Run Techontheruntech.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Colingocolingo.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |