Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
CyberAgent Ventures vs Kairos
8th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 36.5% (19 of 52 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 24.8%–50.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 19th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-9.8 pp
36.5% on 52 deals vs 46.4%
Vs median VC book
-21.9 pp
36.5% on 52 deals vs 58.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-37.4 pp
36.5% on 52 deals vs 73.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-36.7 pp
36.5% on 52 deals vs 73.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
49
Mean model percentile
38
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–20.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-11.9 pp
0.0% on 15 deals vs 11.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
52 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaizen Platformkaizenplatform.com | 2013 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Zawattzawatt.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Beatrobocorp.beatrobo.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| ShopExshopex.cn | 2009 | No | 71 | — |
| Foodyfoody.vn | 2012 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Hapyrushapyrus.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| GZ.comgz.com | 2008 | No | 65 | — |
| Imonomifeelpress.com | 2011 | No | 64 | — |
| eMaremar.com.cn | 2008 | No | 61 | — |
| Bilnabilna.com | 2012 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Kakao Corpkakao.com | 2011 | Yes | 51 | — |
| RoomCliproomclip.jp | 2011 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Revolver Increvolver.jp | 2012 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Best Teacherbest-teacher-inc.com | 2012 | No | 48 | — |
| BlogBusblogbus.com | 2006 | No | 48 | — |
| Wondershakewondershake.com | 2011 | No | 47 | — |
| Coineycoiney.com | 2012 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Samurai Internationalsamurai-international.jp | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| Rettyretty.me | 2011 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Purple Blue Bozibolan.com | 2009 | No | 44 | — |
| FrogAppsfrogapps.com | 2011 | No | 42 | — |
| A-STARagency-star.co.jp | 2012 | No | 42 | — |
| garbsgarbs.co.jp | 2012 | No | 41 | — |
| 9tong.com9tong.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| TIKI.VNtiki.vn | 2012 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Piece of Cakepieceofcake.co.jp | 2012 | No | 37 | — |
| Matchalarmmatchalarm.co.jp | 2011 | No | 35 | — |
| Vatgia.comvatgia.com | 2009 | No | 32 | — |
| mAPPngfan.com | 2010 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Loco Partnersloco-partners.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| EpicForceepicforce.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| TutorGrouptutor-group.com | 2012 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Fooooofooooo.com | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| Mutations Studiomutationsltd.com | 2012 | No | 23 | — |
| VNGvng.com.vn | 2010 | No | 20 | — |
| LOCKON CO.,LTD.lockon.co.jp | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| VMG Mediavmgmedia.vn | 2010 | No | 19 | — |
| iPeenipeen.com.tw | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Insight Plusinsight-plus.jp | 2011 | No | 18 | — |
| Cinnamoncinnamon.is | 2012 | Yes | 17 | — |
| iCook.twicook.tw | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| CleverAdscleverads.vn | 2011 | No | 16 | — |
| Sunfun Infoi-part.com.tw | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Beijing Exhibition Cheng Technologyzctech.lofter.com | 2011 | No | 14 | — |
| TeaMobiteamobi.com | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| USERJOY Technologyuserjoy.com.tw | 2007 | No | 13 | — |
| Baokimbaokim.vn | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| NCT Corporationnhaccuatui.com | 2012 | No | 13 | — |
| Mind Palettemindpl.com | 2010 | No | 10 | — |
| mana.bo Inc.mana.bo | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Dennoodennoo.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| FashionGuidefashionguide.com.tw | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Mieplemieple.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| BASE, Inc.thebase.in | 2013 | Yes | — | — |