Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Deerfield Capital Management vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-24.5 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 44.5%
Vs median VC book
-35.2 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 55.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-51.0 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-44.9 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 64.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
5 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BioSante Pharmaceuticalsbiosantepharma.com | 2010 | No | 63 | — |
| Nivalis Therapeuticsnivalis.com | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Third Wave Technologiestwt.com | 2007 | No | 48 | — |
| Novare Surgicalnovaresurgical.com | 2006 | No | 41 | — |
| Arena Pharmaceuticalsarenapharm.com | 2009 | Yes | 20 | — |