Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Delphi Ventures vs Kairos
48th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (12 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.5%–75.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 59th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.5 pp
57.1% on 21 deals vs 40.6%
Vs median VC book
+4.7 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 50.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.3 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 66.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.0 pp
55.6% on 18 deals vs 59.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 20 of 21 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.6% (6 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 15.4%–54.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.2 pp
31.6% on 19 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAI Pharmaceuticalskaipharmaceuticals.com | 2003 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| ELENZAelenza.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Primaeva Medicalprimaevamedical.com | 2006 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Relypsarelypsa.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Aragon Surgicalaragonsurgical.com | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| Vibryntvibrynt.com | 2007 | No | 73 | — |
| VytronUSvytronus.com | 2007 | Yes | 72 | — |
| BARRX Medicalbarrx.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| NeuroVistaneurovista.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Reliant Technologiesreliant-tech.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| PhotoTheraphotothera.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| PixelOpticspixeloptics.com | 2008 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Cameron Healthcameronhealth.com | 2008 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Breathe Technologiesbreathetechnologies.com | 2008 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Paracor Medicalparacormedical.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Evalveevalveinc.com | 2004 | No | 31 | — |
| Adianaadiana.com | 2005 | No | 25 | — |
| TriVasculartrivascular.com | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Anulexanulex.com | 2006 | Yes | 11 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| PTC Therapeuticsptcbio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |