Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Delta Partners vs Kairos
19th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 45.5% (10 of 22 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.9%–65.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 31st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+0.5 pp
45.5% on 22 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
-13.1 pp
42.9% on 21 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.7 pp
42.9% on 21 deals vs 70.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-28.2 pp
42.1% on 19 deals vs 70.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 21 of 22 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.4% (2 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 4.3%–42.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.3 pp
15.4% on 13 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
22 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SeeWhyseewhy.com | 2004 | Yes | 95 | Yes |
| Zapazapatechnology.com | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| KidStartkidstart.co.uk | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| SpineGuardspineguard.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Xiamxiam.com | 2004 | No | 80 | — |
| StitcherAdsstitcherads.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| CleverCardcleverbug.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Digital Minesdigitalmines.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Digit Game Studiosdigitgaming.com | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Lightstorm Networks | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Miracor Medical Systems GmbHmiracormedical.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| WeShopweshop.com | 2010 | Yes | 62 | — |
| WhipCarwhipcar.com | 2009 | No | 60 | — |
| AccuNosticsaccunostics.co.uk | 2011 | No | 46 | — |
| Similarity Systems | 2005 | No | 38 | — |
| Luzern Solutionsluzernsolutions.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |
| GlySureglysure.com | 2012 | Yes | 35 | — |
| PolarLakepolarlake.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |
| m-spatial | 2005 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Motobuykersmotobuykers.com | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| AMT (Aircraft Management Technologies)flightman.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Clueycluey.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Davra Networksdavranetworks.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |