Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Demeter Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-11.5 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-25.1 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 58.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-41.6 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 75.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.7 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 59.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
30
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-11.3 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 11.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solairedirectsolairedirect.com | 2008 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Alediaaledia.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Le Floch Depollutionleflochdepollution.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |
| JMB Energiejmbenergie.com | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| RVXrvx.fr | 2008 | No | 29 | — |
| Green Gas Internationalgreengas.net | 2008 | No | 20 | — |
| SEMCO Engineeringsemcoeng.com | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| PANOSOLpanosol.fr | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Cooltech Applicationscooltech-applications.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |