Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
DeNovo Ventures vs Kairos
91st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.0% (17 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 60.0%–92.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 92nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.7 pp
81.0% on 21 deals vs 42.2%
Vs median VC book
+28.6 pp
81.0% on 21 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+13.1 pp
81.0% on 21 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+19.5 pp
81.0% on 21 deals vs 61.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
21
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (2 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 3.1%–32.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-2.1 pp
11.1% on 18 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cartilix | 2006 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Allakosallakos.com | 2012 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Astute Medicalastutemedical.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Spiracurspiracur.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Spinal Modulationspinalmodulation.com | 2006 | No | 85 | — |
| HemaQuest Pharmaceuticalshemaquest.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| TearSciencetearscience.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Benvenue Medicalbenvenuemedical.com | 2008 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Simpirica Spinesimpirica.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| TRIA Beautytriabeauty.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| MyoSciencemyoscience.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Talima Therapeuticstalima.com | 2005 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Ovalis | 2007 | Yes | 56 | — |
| PhotoTheraphotothera.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| WaveTec Visionwavetecvision.com | 2007 | Yes | 46 | — |
| EBR Systemsebrsystemsinc.com | 2005 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Sierra Surgical | 2007 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Paracor Medicalparacormedical.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| OncoMed Pharmaceuticalsoncomed.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Pulmonxpulmonx.com | 2007 | Yes | 23 | — |
| InSound Medicalinsoundmedical.com | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |