Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Desjardins Venture Capital vs Kairos
16th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 40.0% (6 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 19.8%–64.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 26th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-3.1 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
-13.1 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.8 pp
40.0% on 15 deals vs 66.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-35.3 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 71.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
49
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 35.7% (5 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 16.3%–61.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.5 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 15.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tungle.metungle.me | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| BioAxone Therapeutic | 2005 | No | 79 | — |
| Enobia Pharmaenobia.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| GEOCOMtms | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| Coradiantcoradiant.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Natural Convergencenaturalconvergence.com | 2004 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Cellfishcellfish.com | 2006 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Double-Take Software Canadatimespring.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Osprey Pharmaceuticals USAospreypharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Humagade | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Alyotech Canada | 2007 | No | 23 | — |
| Galazargalazar.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| Victrixvictrix.ca | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| Spinlogic Technologiesdynec.com | 2006 | No | 14 | — |
| Meriton Networksmeriton.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |