Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Detroit Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 85.7% (6 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.7%–97.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.3 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 47.4%
Vs median VC book
+24.8 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 60.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.7 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 77.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+9.1 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 76.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UpToupto.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Fludflud.it | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| LevelElevenleveleleven.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Marxentmarxentlabs.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| GINKGOTREEginkgotree.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Quiklymovequikly.com | 2012 | Yes | 65 | — |
| hiredMYway.comhiredmyway.com | 2011 | No | 22 | — |
| Grand Circusgrandcircus.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Opsmaticopsmatic.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |