Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Gotham Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 90.0% (9 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.6%–98.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+47.6 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
+38.2 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 51.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+22.3 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+26.3 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 61.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+38.2 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 11.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solvatesolvate.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| SinglePlatformsingleplatform.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Panvideapanvidea.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| Seamless Receiptsseamlessreceipts.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Medialetsmedialets.com | 2009 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Worktopiaworktopia.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Monitor110monitor110.com | 2006 | Yes | 34 | — |
| ContextWebcontextweb.com | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Searchandise Commercesearchandise.net | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| NanoOptonanoopto.com | 2003 | Yes | 21 | — |