Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Mercury Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (10 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 55.2%–95.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+39.7 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
+29.1 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 54.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+12.8 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 70.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+18.5 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 64.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.0% (3 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 10.8%–60.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.4 pp
30.0% on 10 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unwired Nationunwirednation.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| Macheenmacheen.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Epic Playgroundepicplayground.com | 2011 | No | 93 | — |
| Phurnace Softwarebmc.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| ShareThissharethis.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| GameSaladgamesalad.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Swift Biosciencesswiftbiosci.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Wide Open Spaceswideopenspaces.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Kabongokabongo.com | 2009 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Glycos Biotechnologiesglycosbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Actacellactacell.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| UnWired Buyerunwiredbuyer.com | 2006 | Yes | 16 | — |