Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
DFJ Tamir Fishman Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+0.0 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-10.8 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 55.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.5 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.6 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 68.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.8 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siklusiklu.com | 2008 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Superfishsuperfish.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Everything.mecorp.everything.me | 2011 | Yes | 67 | — |
| IgnitAdignitad.com | 2010 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Kaiimakaiima.com | 2011 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Super Technologies Inc.supertec.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| Fusion Dynamic | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Holahola.org | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| CopperGate Communicationscopper-gate.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |