Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
DN Capital vs Kairos
57th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (12 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.7%–83.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 70th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.1 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 44.6%
Vs median VC book
+10.7 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 55.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-5.5 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 72.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.7 pp
64.7% on 17 deals vs 66.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.8% (4 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 12.7%–57.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.6 pp
30.8% on 13 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datanomicdatanomic.com | 2003 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Familybuilderlivefamily.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Empower Interactiveempower-interactive.com | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| AirSense Wirelessairsensewireless.com | 2011 | No | 84 | — |
| Sonicosonico.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| OLXolx.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Geckoboardgeckoboard.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Apsmartapsmart.mobi | 2009 | No | 79 | — |
| IGA Worldwideigaworldwide.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| eYekaeyeka.net | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Windeln.dewindeln.de | 2010 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Performance Horizonperformancehorizon.com | 2010 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Tbrickstbricks.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| YogiPlayyogiplay.com | 2012 | No | 44 | — |
| Dezineforcedezineforce.com | 2010 | No | 12 | — |
| Lagan Technologieslagan.com | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Scarossoscarosso.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Brisk.iobrisk.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Distilldistill.cc | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| L’ArcoBalenolarcobaleno.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Luxodoluxodo.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Peakpeak.net | 2013 | Yes | — | — |