Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Double M Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.5 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 50.9%
Vs median VC book
+2.8 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 68.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.6 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 84.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.7 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 74.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trade Deskthetradedesk.com | 2010 | No | 100 | Yes |
| SHIFTshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Tradesytradesy.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Lettucelettuceapps.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Pathmatics (formerly Adomic)pathmatics.com | 2013 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Prevotyprevoty.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Quietlyquiet.ly | 2013 | No | 28 | — |
| The Idealiststheidealists.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| On The Run Techontheruntech.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |