Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Doughty Hanson Technology Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.8% (7 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.1%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.3 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+1.4 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 52.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.9 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 67.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.0 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 62.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.4 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoundCloud Inc.soundcloud.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Handmade Mobilehandmademobile.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| nScalednscaled.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Mobangomobango.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Actionality | 2006 | No | 74 | — |
| Garlikgarlik.com | 2006 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Azure Solutionsazuresolutions.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| RainStorrainstor.com | 2009 | Yes | 66 | — |
| 20:20 Mobile2020mobile.com | 2008 | No | 54 | — |
| Sustainable Energysustainableenergy.com | 2009 | No | 31 | — |
| DeepStream Technologies | 2006 | No | 27 | — |
| MBA Polymersmbapolymers.com | 2007 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Orchestria Corporationorchestria.com | 2004 | Yes | 12 | — |