Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
DreamIt Ventures vs Kairos
11th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 38.9% (14 of 36 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 24.8%–55.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 22nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-6.4 pp
38.9% on 36 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
-17.0 pp
38.9% on 36 deals vs 55.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-33.2 pp
38.9% on 36 deals vs 72.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-24.0 pp
38.9% on 36 deals vs 62.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
36
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.5% (5 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–36.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.6 pp
18.5% on 27 deals vs 10.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
36 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postlingpostling.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Parselyparsely.com | 2009 | Yes | 93 | — |
| MindSnacksmindsnacks.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| SeatGeekseatgeek.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| CloudMinecloudmine.me | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Kweliakwelia.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Notehallnotehall.com | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| SnipSnapsnipsnap.it | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Cognectioncognection.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| ClrTouchclrtouch.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| TrendKitetrendkite.com | 2013 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Tidaltid.al | 2009 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Sleep.FMsleep.fm | 2008 | No | 75 | — |
| Mashed jobsmashedjobs.com | 2009 | No | 74 | — |
| Bazaartbazaart.me | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| OneAwayoneaway.me | 2011 | No | 69 | — |
| Flirqflirq.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Sqootsqoot.com | 2010 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Ecquire, Inc.ecquire.com | 2008 | Yes | 67 | — |
| SCVNGRthelevelup.com | 2008 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Pocket Talespockettales.com | 2010 | No | 64 | — |
| Three Screen Gamesthreescreengames.com | 2009 | No | 58 | — |
| UXFLIPuxflip.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| Anthillzanthillz.com | 2008 | No | 50 | — |
| Straight Up Englishstraightupenglish.com | 2009 | No | 49 | — |
| InterviewBestinterviewbest.com | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| OurShelfbeta.rshelf.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| TapInkotapinko.com | 2008 | No | 31 | — |
| Yunnoyunno.com | 2010 | No | 30 | — |
| Dropcarddropcard.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Trendienttrendient.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Phrazitphrazit.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Kidzillionskidzillions.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Beta Dashbetdash.com | 2009 | No | 18 | — |
| BeanStockdbeanstockd.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| SnackFeedsnackfeed.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |
| Constant Insightconstantinsight.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Drop ’til You Shopdroptilyoushop.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |