Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Duchossois Technology Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (6 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.9%–92.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+32.4 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+22.8 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 52.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+10.0 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 65.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.1 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 76.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+9.4 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 15.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intellon Corporationintellon.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Pintail Technologiespintailtechnologies.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| U4EA Wirelessu4eawireless.net | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Mobilitec | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| AirWalk Communicationsairwalkcom.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Personeta | 2004 | Yes | 46 | — |
| NextHop Technologiesnexthop.com | 2006 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Infobloxinfoblox.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |