Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Dundee Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (7 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.9%–97.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 50.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+37.3 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 50.2%
Vs median VC book
+20.3 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 67.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.6 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 82.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+13.1 pp
87.5% on 8 deals vs 74.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulu Boxbulubox.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| ABPathfinderabpathfinder.com | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| MindMixermindmixer.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Wide Open Spaceswideopenspaces.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Tripleseat Softwaretripleseat.com | 2010 | No | 59 | — |
| DonorPathdonorpath.co | 2013 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Connoshoerconnoshoer.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| HuntForcehuntforce.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Cympelcympel.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| DivvyHQdivvyhq.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |