Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
e.ventures vs Kairos
42nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 56.8% (21 of 37 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.9%–71.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 48th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.6 pp
56.8% on 37 deals vs 46.1%
Vs median VC book
+0.7 pp
58.8% on 34 deals vs 58.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-14.3 pp
58.8% on 34 deals vs 73.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.9 pp
58.8% on 34 deals vs 71.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 34 of 37 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
33
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 43.5% (10 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 25.6%–63.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+30.5 pp
43.5% on 23 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
37 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoVoxxmovoxx.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Vuzevuze.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Peanut Labspeanutlabs.com | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Savoteur (formerly Daily Secret)savoteur.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| BlueKaibluekai.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Pulsepulseapp.co | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Eucalyptus Systemseucalyptus.com | 2009 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Fight My Monsterfightmymonster.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| AdMomentadmoment.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Appfolioappfolio.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| NGINX, Inc.nginx.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| DropGiftsdropgifts.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Lastlinelastline.com | 2013 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Auctionataauctionata.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Peerflixpeerflix.com | 2005 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Darberrydarberry.ru | 2010 | No | 68 | — |
| Sapato.rusapato.ru | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| AnsibleWorksansibleworks.com | 2013 | No | 62 | — |
| Angie's Listangieslist.com | 2006 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Ixtensmerchantry.com | 2010 | Yes | 55 | — |
| deliciousdelicious.com | 2005 | No | 55 | — |
| Dealstreetdealstreet.com | 2009 | No | 55 | — |
| Heverest.ruheverest.ru | 2011 | Yes | 47 | — |
| 9flats9flats.com | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| Reloaded Games, Inc.reloadedinc.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Sonossonos.com | 2005 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Fotologfotolog.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| Amplifyamplify.com | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| Teamo.ruteamo.ru | 2012 | Yes | 29 | — |
| 55social55social.com | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Citydeal.decitydeal.de | 2010 | No | 21 | — |
| Domgeo.rudomgeo.ru | 2011 | No | 16 | — |
| TopRealtytoprealty.ca | 2010 | No | 4 | — |
| nCircle Network Securityncircle.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Vicampovicampo.de | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Cranite Systems | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Sonim Technologiessonimtech.com | 2002 | No | — | — |