Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Early Stage Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 37.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-3.7 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 37.0%
Vs median VC book
-12.3 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 45.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.8 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 61.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.5 pp
50.0% on 4 deals vs 60.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.4 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arisdyne Systemsarisdyne.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Unitaskunitask.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| LineStream Technologieslinestream.com | 2008 | No | 58 | — |
| Five Star Technologiesfivestartech.com | 2003 | No | 57 | — |
| AxioMed Spineaxiomed.com | 2003 | No | 36 | — |
| EcoSMART Technologiesecosmart.com | 2008 | Yes | 18 | — |