Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Earlybird Venture Capital vs Kairos
26th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (12 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.4%–68.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 38th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.8 pp
50.0% on 24 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
-6.0 pp
50.0% on 24 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.5 pp
50.0% on 24 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-19.4 pp
47.6% on 21 deals vs 67.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 26.3% (5 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 11.8%–48.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.4 pp
26.3% on 19 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiquidMliquidm.com | 2013 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Smavasmava.de | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| Crowdparkcrowdpark.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Clean Mobileclean-mobile.com | 2008 | No | 82 | — |
| carpooling.comcarpooling.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Traxpaytraxpay.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Socialbakerssocialbakers.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Vital Sensors | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Miracor Medical Systems GmbHmiracormedical.com | 2008 | No | 66 | — |
| Yoggie Security Systemsyoggie.com | 2006 | Yes | 54 | — |
| RapidMinerrapidminer.com | 2013 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Purple Labspurplelabs.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| B2X Care Solutionsb2x.com | 2012 | Yes | 45 | — |
| UPEKupek.com | 2004 | No | 45 | — |
| simfysimfy.de | 2010 | Yes | 38 | — |
| EBS Technologiesebstech.de | 2010 | No | 32 | — |
| Zonare Medical Systemszonare.com | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| MergeOpticsmergeoptics.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Mopedmoped.com | 2012 | No | 22 | — |
| abaXX Technology | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Conjectconject.com | 2008 | No | 21 | — |
| BridgeCobridgeco.net | 2003 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Lumicslumics.com | 2005 | No | 10 | — |
| Onefootballonefootball.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| smava.de | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Jumpstarterjumpstarter.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| DingDongdingdongapp.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |