Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
East Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (6 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.0%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+50.2 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 49.8%
Vs median VC book
+33.5 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 66.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
+18.7 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 81.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+25.2 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 74.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
4
Mean model percentile
32
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokopediatokopedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Sribusribu.com | 2012 | Yes | 37 | — |
| UrbanIndourbanindo.com | 2012 | Yes | 24 | — |
| PriceAreapricearea.com | 2010 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Shopdecashopdeca.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Nanameuenanameue.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| 7-bites7-bites.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PrimeAgain,Incdecoalbum.us | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| TwitCastingtwitcasting.tv | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Kanmuclo.kanmu.co.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |