Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Easton Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.8 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 41.2%
Vs median VC book
+18.8 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 66.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+15.8 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 62.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-3.4 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolve Therapeuticsresolvebio.com | 2011 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Achronix Semiconductorachronix.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| PlaySpanplayspan.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Promediorpromedior.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| bluebird biobluebirdbio.com | 2004 | No | 83 | — |
| IGA Worldwideigaworldwide.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Trellis Biosciencetrellisbio.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| GoCrossCampusgocrosscampus.com | 2007 | No | 62 | — |
| Sonicssonicsinc.com | 2005 | No | 57 | — |
| Gentisgentisinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |