Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ecosystem Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 88.9% (8 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.5%–98.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+41.3 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 47.6%
Vs median VC book
+26.2 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 62.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+9.6 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 79.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+19.6 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 69.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
81
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graphiclygraphicly.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| PowerInboxpowerinbox.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Voicebasevoicebase.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Visual.lyvisual.ly | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| rVitarvita.com | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| Storefrontthestorefront.com | 2013 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Microventuresmicroventures.com | 2011 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Attolightattolight.com | 2010 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Simplibuy Technologieswicfy.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |