Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Eden Ventures vs Kairos
71st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.2% (13 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.1%–87.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 81st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.1 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+20.0 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 52.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.3 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.6 pp
72.2% on 18 deals vs 61.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.8% (2 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 3.3%–34.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-1.6 pp
11.8% on 17 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acunuacunu.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| VOSS Solutionsvoss-solutions.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Huddlehuddle.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Reevooreevoo.com | 2006 | No | 91 | — |
| Software Cellular Networkscn.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Borroborro.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ambient Industriesambientindustries.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| ResponseTapresponsetap.com | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Exabreexabre.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| blinkbox musicblinkboxmusic.com | 2008 | No | 75 | — |
| Mobykomobyko.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| Secernosecerno.com | 2006 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Apertioapertio.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| The Filterthefilter.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| blinkboxblinkbox.com | 2009 | No | 44 | — |
| NewVoiceMedianewvoicemedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Triboldtribold.com | 2005 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Biometric Securityvoicevault.com | 2006 | Yes | 20 | — |