Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Edison Partners vs Kairos
42nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.3% (25 of 46 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.2%–67.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 47th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.0 pp
54.3% on 46 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+1.8 pp
56.8% on 44 deals vs 55.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.5 pp
56.8% on 44 deals vs 70.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.4 pp
56.8% on 44 deals vs 66.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 44 of 46 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
42
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.4% (7 of 36). 95% Wilson interval 9.8%–35.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.8 pp
19.4% on 36 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
46 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vox Mobilevoxmobile.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Agentekagentek.com | 2008 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Salsa Labssalsalabs.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Giant Realmgiantrealm.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Lifebooker.comlifebooker.com | 2011 | No | 83 | — |
| Optinuityoptinuity.com | 2007 | No | 81 | — |
| KEMP Technologieskemptechnologies.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| CallCopycallcopy.com | 2011 | No | 78 | — |
| CorasWorkscorasworks.net | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| SnapOnesnapone.com | 2006 | No | 69 | — |
| Fishbowlfishbowl.com | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Telarixtelarix.com | 2005 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Sell My Timeshare NOWsellmytimesharenow.com | 2008 | Yes | 62 | — |
| ADP (Automatic Data Processing)adp.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| FolioDynamixfoliodynamix.com | 2008 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Regent Educationregenteducation.com | 2006 | Yes | 52 | — |
| DiagnosisOnediagnosisone.com | 2010 | No | 51 | — |
| Tangoetangoe.com | 2005 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Call 1-855-276 2781 for QuickBooks Support Phone Number. QuickBooks Toll Free numberqbhub.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| SANpulse Technologiessanpulse.com | 2009 | Yes | 49 | — |
| The Neat Companyneat.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Portable Internet | 2005 | No | 48 | — |
| Scivantagescivantage.com | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Sonicbidssonicbids.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| LogicTreelogictree.com | 2006 | No | 42 | — |
| Motionsoftmotionsoft.net | 2010 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Innovectrainnovectra.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Billtrustbilltrust.com | 2006 | No | 41 | — |
| TheInfoPro451research.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| Inmagicinmagic.com | 2007 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Formattaformatta.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Mathsoft Engineering & Educationmathsoft.com | 2005 | No | 31 | — |
| Ontuitiveontuitive.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| TraderToolstradertools.com | 2009 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Health Market Sciencehealthmarketscience.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Premier Healthcare Exchangephx-online.com | 2010 | No | 27 | — |
| Archive Systemsarchivesystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 27 | — |
| IPP of Americasoftgatesystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Presidium Learningpresidiuminc.com | 2008 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Operative Mediaoperative.com | 2005 | No | 18 | — |
| ClearPoint Learning Systemsclearpointlearning.com | 2009 | Yes | 15 | — |
| CambridgeSoftcambridgesoft.com | 2006 | Yes | 9 | — |
| eSentireesentire.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| CorrectNetcorrectnet.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| VFAvfa.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| OptionsCity Softwareoptionscity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Lincor Solutionslincor.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |