Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Edmond de Rothschild Venture Capital vs Kairos
10th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (5 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–58.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 18th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-11.1 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
-22.7 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-37.9 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-35.1 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 68.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (4 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 11.7%–54.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.8 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poxelpoxel.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| Implanetimplanet.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Sapienssapiensneuro.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Endosenseendosense.com | 2009 | No | 65 | — |
| AJ Techajtech.fr | 2008 | No | 63 | — |
| Genticelgenticel.com | 2010 | No | 54 | — |
| PDC Biotechpdcbiotech.com | 2010 | No | 53 | — |
| MeeVeemeevee.com | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Nautilus Biotech | 2005 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Probiodrugprobiodrug.de | 2009 | Yes | 42 | — |
| FastBookingfastbooking.com | 2007 | No | 38 | — |
| CellNovocellnovo.com | 2011 | No | 35 | — |
| Cytomics Pharmaceuticalscytomics.fr | 2006 | No | 34 | — |
| Garden Pricegardenprice.com | 2010 | No | 17 | — |
| Smilesmile.fr | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| OncoEthixoncoethix.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Turbocoatingturbocoating.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Allecra Therapeuticsallecra.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |