Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Egan-Managed Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.8 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 41.3%
Vs median VC book
+6.3 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 50.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.0 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 65.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.2 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 65.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.2 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nexaweb Inc.nexaweb.com | 2003 | No | 94 | Yes |
| Network Intelligence | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| Verivo Softwareverivo.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| OnePINonepin.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Pyxis Mobilepyxismobile.com | 2005 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Calpurnia Corporation | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| enVistaenvistacorp.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |