Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
El Dorado Ventures vs Kairos
11th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (7 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 17.2%–54.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 20th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-8.0 pp
33.3% on 21 deals vs 41.4%
Vs median VC book
-19.1 pp
31.6% on 19 deals vs 50.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-34.4 pp
31.6% on 19 deals vs 65.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-34.3 pp
31.3% on 16 deals vs 65.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 19 of 21 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
31/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.0% (4 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 7.7%–40.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.7 pp
19.0% on 21 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RipCoderipcode.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Storspeeditknowledgeexchange.techtarget.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| BlueRoadsblueroads.com | 2004 | No | 95 | Yes |
| CrossLoopcrossloop.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| BridgeLuxbridgelux.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Blaze DFM | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Atlantis Computingatlantiscomputing.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| ClickShiftclickshift.co.uk | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Enstratiusenstratius.com | 2011 | No | 82 | — |
| Skytideskytide.com | 2005 | No | 82 | — |
| OurStoryourstory.com | 2006 | No | 79 | — |
| FusionOnefusionone.com | 2008 | No | 70 | — |
| Voxifyvoxify.com | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| Sana Securitysanasecurity.com | 2004 | No | 66 | — |
| Strix Systemsstrixsystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| DVDPlaydvdplay.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Grain Managementgraingp.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Cortina Systemscortina-systems.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| TriActivetriactive.com | 2007 | No | 25 | — |
| Nextancenextance.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Atlantisatlantiss.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Ecastecastnetwork.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |