Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Elaia Partners vs Kairos
10th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 35.3% (6 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 17.3%–58.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 18th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-10.5 pp
35.3% on 17 deals vs 45.8%
Vs median VC book
-21.8 pp
35.3% on 17 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-37.0 pp
35.3% on 17 deals vs 72.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-29.6 pp
35.3% on 17 deals vs 64.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (2 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 4.0%–39.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.8 pp
14.3% on 14 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoop.itscoop.it | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| GOOMgoom.fr | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| Ykoneykone.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| Criteocriteo.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Miraklmirakl.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Exaprotectexaprotect.com | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Seanodesseanodes.fr | 2007 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Orchestra Networksorchestranetworks.com | 2007 | No | 72 | — |
| Goojetgoojet.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Allmyappsallmyapps.com | 2010 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Adomikadomik.com | 2013 | No | 59 | — |
| OpenTrustopentrust.com | 2005 | No | 46 | — |
| tinycluestinyclues.com | 2013 | No | 44 | — |
| Total Immersiont-immersion.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| InforSenseinforsense.com | 2006 | No | 36 | — |
| NexWave Solutionsnexwave-solutions.fr | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| NTRglobalntrglobal.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |
| Sensorlysensorly.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |