Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Element Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (7 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.8%–73.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.1 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
-0.6 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 50.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.1 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 67.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.4 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 56.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
38
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.1% (1 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 1.3%–31.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.3 pp
7.1% on 14 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdeniQedeniq.com | 2008 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Fat Spaniel Technologiesfatspaniel.com | 2006 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Electro-Petroleumelectropetroleum.com | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| Quenchquenchonline.com | 2008 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Deeya Energydeeyaenergy.com | 2006 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Wasatch Windwasatchwind.com | 2008 | Yes | 42 | — |
| ECORE Internationalecoreintl.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| PPT Reasearchpptresearch.com | 2008 | No | 32 | — |
| BMG Controlsbmgseltec.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| DynaPumpdynapumpinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Apex Constructionapexconsys.com | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| Turbine Air Systemstas.com | 2009 | No | 25 | — |
| EcoSMART Technologiesecosmart.com | 2008 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Seven Seas Watersevenseaswater.com | 2008 | No | 14 | — |