Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Embarcadero Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (5 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.6%–97.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.1 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
+25.5 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 57.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+8.5 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 74.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.8 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 75.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
89
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+68.6 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikiviki.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Simpleesimplee.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Milkmi.lk | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| GoInstantgoinstant.com | 2011 | No | 89 | — |
| Impermiumimpermium.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Small Demonssmalldemons.com | 2010 | Yes | 78 | — |