Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Emerald Technology Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.0 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 41.0%
Vs median VC book
-2.1 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.3 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-7.6 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 57.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–27.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.3 pp
0.0% on 10 deals vs 12.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XunLightxunlight.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| TerraLUXterraluxillumination.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Senscientsenscient.com | 2008 | No | 62 | — |
| Inge Watertechnologiesinge.ag | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Pelamis Wave Powerpelamiswave.com | 2008 | No | 45 | — |
| Vapremavaperma.com | 2007 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Aquaspyaquaspy.com | 2007 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Apex Constructionapexconsys.com | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| AZZURRO Semiconductorsazzurro-semiconductors.com | 2010 | No | 27 | — |
| Oceanlinxoceanlinx.com | 2008 | No | 13 | — |