Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Emergence Capital Partners vs Kairos
72nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.7% (14 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 51.2%–88.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 81st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.8 pp
73.7% on 19 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+18.2 pp
73.7% on 19 deals vs 55.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.6 pp
73.7% on 19 deals vs 71.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.7 pp
73.7% on 19 deals vs 64.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (2 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 4.0%–39.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.5 pp
14.3% on 14 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kruglekrugle.com | 2006 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Geniusgenius.com | 2006 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Goodmail Systemsgoodmailsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| InsideViewinsideview.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Doximitydoximity.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| ServiceMaxservicemax.com | 2008 | Yes | 88 | — |
| KidZuikidzui.com | 2006 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Zuberancezuberance.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Intacctintacct.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Insightlyinsightly.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Veevaveeva.com | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| Lithium Technologieslithium.com | 2007 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Adapt Technologiesadapt.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| Drivewyzedrivewyze.com | 2013 | Yes | 44 | — |
| DVDPlaydvdplay.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| SmartTurnsmartturn.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |
| TouchCommercetouchcommerce.com | 2006 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Wananchi Groupwananchi.com | 2009 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Repliconreplicon.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Cotapcotap.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |