Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Eniac Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (10 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.4%–88.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.2 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 48.2%
Vs median VC book
+8.5 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 62.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.7 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 79.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.1 pp
71.4% on 14 deals vs 75.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 77.8% (7 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–93.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+66.4 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MindSnacksmindsnacks.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Thumbthumb.it | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Fondufondu.com | 2011 | No | 90 | — |
| Trumakertrumaker.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Metaresolvermetaresolver.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Fast Societyfastsociety.com | 2010 | No | 82 | — |
| OnSwipeonswipe.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Breezybreezy.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| AppHeroapphero.com | 2012 | No | 77 | — |
| Tap to Learntaptolearn.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Boxedboxed.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| TapCommercetapcommerce.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Reactor Inc.reactorlabs.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Just Sing Itjustsingit.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |